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May 21, 2020

Will opening up restrictions be a good idea in Victoria?

Doing work, and dying from going to work are a hard thing to strategise. All these economists are arguing that the economy is going to be screwed (It took 7 years to recover from GFC,) So yep this is going to take a decade to recover, the thing is, SARS and MERS were around less than a decade ago, their countries did contain them and they didn’t replicate as fast as covid-19 did, that means that there is going to be another super virus after covid-19 its not will, but when. This is the first time this generation has dealt with a virus of this magnitude. Wouldn’t you want the Gov of today to get it right this time around, and then when something like this happens in the future. We are better prepared. The real risk here if you look at the USA for instance, they’ve lost thousands of lives. The median death age is working people, that means that even if they reopen their economy which they are doing, they’ve lost CEO’s CFO’s and every piece of different corporations, in some cases business have lost half their work force, all infected by one or two workers inside their building. The cost to a company is crippling, the amount of years of knowledge build up. Let alone the phycological impact on other staff. Can they perform at the same level as before, No. And they will be under staffed for a very long time, and may go under because of it. A few more weeks, of restrictions, based on the doubling rate of this virus. Remember mid March, the virus got away, three weeks we jumped from a few hundred cases to several thousand, and it can still happen again now. Only 5 mil people of 60 mil phones have downloaded the app for contact tracing. That means for the authorities to respond and trace contacts it will still take 14 days for the symptom to appear and further days to trace. That’s usually close to three weeks. Far as work, yep i’d love to get back to it, but from what I’ve read the air industry is predicting 50% of air traffic back by 2023, And no international travel at scale until last quarter 2021, that means my job, has gone by by, even if we do open up local restrictions. Far as the flu going on since the beginning of time, yes and no, the flu (influenza) has been mutating since before 400 BCE (first documented in writing) but not one strain, but a class of viruses, the Corona virus is another class of viruses and covid-19 is one of those in the class. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_influenza As far as vaccines don’t work, well in fact they do but only for the strain inside the class, but not if the virus mutates, Distributed bio has developed a vaccine that can prevent the last 160 variations of flu in 7 shots. https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax but is still under development. And expensive. Covid-19 currently has three strains, and the problem now is that the countries that announce they have made a vaccine only target one of the strains. Did you know the strain in Asia, doesn’t match the one in the USA and Australia, and the one in Europe is its own strain as well. They now call it type A, B, C that means that for now we need all three produced as a vaccine. And it could easily mutate again. We could open up everything, and go on like we don’t care like the USA, it’s too late to track and trace, suppress, they are going for herd immunity. That means that America will be on the no fly zone for a decade or more. Just because they wanted to open up early. Will this impact their economy more or shutting down every thing till the virus dies out and lives are saved cost the economy more, with no virus on our shores and most of our working force alive how easy is it to bounce back, regardless of a job being there. New companies can be created if need be.

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